Stage 3.2 Undertake participatory vulnerability assessment and identify risks

Who's Involved

• Workshop participants (can be between 50 – 100 people), facilitated by Assignment Management Team

Timing and time required

• During ‘Climate risks & vulnerabilities’ workshop
• 6 hours

Key questions

1. How do climatic conditions currently affect the country’s energy sector?
2. What are the effects of current climatic variability?
3. How could climate change affect the performance of energy sector assets?
4. If extreme climate events occur more frequently / more severely, what impacts could occur?
5. What are the effects of changes in average climatic conditions?
6. Could critical thresholds be exceeded due to climate change?

Tools

• Agenda for workshop facilitators
• Maps showing climate change projections and energy assets
• ‘Energy Risks Pathways Model’ amended for the assignment
• Handouts showing full set of climate hazards
• Photos and diagrams of assets to help stimulate discussions in working groups

Guidance

1. Break into working groups of about 10 people each, covering all the energy activities included in the assignment, organized according to the country priorities and assets, e.g.
   • fuel production
   • energy generation (sub-divided into asset type)
   • transmission and distribution
   • energy demand.
2. Provide the following materials to each working group to aid the discussion:
   • Maps showing climate change projections and energy assets
   • Business Risks Pathways Model
   • Handouts showing full set of climate hazards
   • Photos and diagrams of energy assets.
3. Record all discussions on pre-prepared flipcharts divided up into four quadrants: ‘Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats’ (SWOT).
4. Discuss overall strategies and objectives for the country’s energy sector
5. Discuss existing climatic sensitivities, vulnerabilities and critical climate-related thresholds for the energy sector. Record the discussions in the ‘Strengths’ and ‘Weaknesses’ sections of the flipcharts. Use the Energy Risks Pathways diagram to help stimulate the discussion, covering the following issues:
   • Availability of natural resources & raw materials
   • Reliability of transport, supply chain and logistics
   • Site location and ground conditions
   • Asset design, performance and integrity
   • Performance of operations and processes
   • Emergency planning and business continuity
   • Workforce health and safety
   • Environmental performance
   • Social performance
   • Seasonality of energy demand and supply-demand imbalance.
6. Discuss views of impacts of climate change on the energy sector and identify likely opportunities and risks. Record the discussions in the ‘Opportunities’ and ‘Threats’ sections of the flipcharts.
7. Ask the participants to vote on the priority issues and summarize the main messages for brief presentation in the final plenary session.
8. After working groups have finished, reconvene in plenary for brief feedbacks from each working group on the priority issues identified, followed by a final discussion session.
9. The closing comments at the workshop should explain the next steps in the vulnerability and adaptation assessment process.

Outputs

• Workshop report with SWOT (‘Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats’) analysis of the vulnerabilities and resilience of the energy sector to climate change:
  • ‘Strengths and Weaknesses’ describes the current energy situation and how it is affected by weather / climate,
  • ‘Opportunities and Threats’ describes the identified risks and opportunities for the energy sector from future climatic variability and climate change.